It was a lot of fun to get out with the old tennis guys last night. We joined a new club this year and I have been spending most of my time playing there. Thursday Night Tennis is still play for a couple of hours and then drink beer and hang for a while, and I’m glad for it, but the Ridgetop game always has bigger beers at the end and I’m moving a step slow this morning.
Now I have to decide if I’m going to play in the heavy heat this weekend.
The investing industry is ridden with bullshit. The most common and insidious form is over-optimism: offers of tantalizing risk/reward that defy any notion of reality, often based on misinformation or deception. Less common but even more dangerous are outright frauds.
The problem is inherent to the product. Most consumer goods – apples, hotel rooms, laptop computers – are tangible objects or services that you can see, taste, feel, or experience, so you can judge how much they are worth to you. Investments represent claims about some future probability distribution of monetary outcomes which are not literally verifiable. The best an investor can do is form a reasonable judgment about the uncertainty around those claims, based on historical evidence and details about the mechanics of how those claimed outcomes are generated.
Unrelated, I get a great deal of joy from every issue of The Big Takeover. I love reading record reviews and every issue is packed full of bands I’ve never heard of, written about by people who care as much as I do.
I was extra excited to see the Wet Leg LP, the front-runner for my personal Record of the Year, in the 4-spot. Man, I hope they come nearby on their next US tour.