Ethan and I are picking games again! We’re both sitting at .500 for the season. It’s kind of silly because we do disagree on some games each week, we’ve just been splitting them. Anyway, on to the Friday Afternoon Quarterbacking!
San Diego at New England
Patriots - In this space last week, I picked the Pats to lose. But After reading Mike’s analysis, I changed my pick in our Yahoo Pick’em Pool. This week, I’m starting with picking the Pats. This team keeps losing key starters and I think it will catch up with them. They’re not going 15-1 this year. But I still don’t believe in the Chargers. They looked very impressive against the Giants, but I’ll need another month to know if that’s an accomplishment. San Diego has a bottom-10 defense. NE has a top-10 defense, a clear coaching advantage, and home field. I’m looking for Tom Brady to have a huge game against a suspect Chargers secondary. Patriots here as well. Unless Brady or Dillon gets hurt I can’t see betting against them. They’re bound to lose a couple of upset games but the smart money has to be on the Pats week after week. I think the Chargers’ whipping of the Giants last week was more about exposing an overrated defense than the awakening of an offensive juggernaut. I’m curious to see how the loss of Rodney Harrison affects the Patriots defense, too
Minnesota at Atlanta
Falcons - Which up-and-down team to go with? Here’s a hint: what happens when the #1 rushing attack hosts the #30 rush defense? If you said, “Mayhem”, congratulations! Please proceed to Game 3. Statistically these teams are even and the Vikes certainly have a clear advantage at QB. But the Vikes are on the road and I have a hard time saying with a straight face, “The Vikes are obviously back. Did you see them beat up on the Saints?” This should be a fun game to watch. I, for one, am totally buying that the Vikings are back (Disclaimer: I just traded for C-Pep in The PRF). Mewelde Moore opens up the passing game for Culpepper and as long as Mike Tice keeps that in the front of his mind I think the Vikings will win. I haven’t forgotten how bad Mike Vick made the Vikings look 2 years ago but he’s too dinged up to do it again. Vikings win a fun one.
Dallas at Oakland
Raiders - I wrote an entire paragraph predicting the Cowboys and I just deleted it. The Raiders have the higher-ranked offense, the higher-ranked defense, and have done it against a higher caliber of opponent (Dallas opponents: 4-4, Oakland opponents: 6-3). Collins is still kind of erratic (54% completion) but has 6 TDs and 0 picks. Norv Turner is a very sound game-planner and playcaller and with Collins-Jordan-Moss, he has the players to execute. And don’t forget how much Randy loves the Cowboys. I like the Raiders at home. Bombs away. I don’t see one team having a huge advantage over the other in this game at all. I see it a lot closer than Ethan but I’m not sure who comes out on top. Seriously, I have no idea. I’m going to choose the Cowboys because I think that in a close game you have to go with the better coach (but it could easily be the Raiders on the Moss factor alone).
49ers - What a slap in the face to Mexico City. The city has repeatedly sold out NFL exhibition games staged in its 100k+ stadium. So, their first regular season game is between two teams that combined for 8-24 in 2004. Nice. I bet Tags & Crew are kicking themselves for not scheduling a Saints game down there… Might be fun to watch, though. These teams are 31st and 32nd in Points Allowed. I like the 49ers here, because their offense actually score (8 TDs this season, compared to ARZ’s 2). Josh McCown was pretty mediocre last year and I don’t expect a lot of improvement against SF’s surprising pass rush (11 sacks, 3rd in the league). The good news is I that should get plenty of sleep Sunday night. The bad news is that this game between two of the worst teams in the league will be a 49ers blowout and not even worth reading about on Monday morning. The Cardinals are bad. Also, the turf at the field where they usually play these Mexico City games isn’t really built for gigantic football players so the games end up getting sloppy after halftime. Look for Plan on reading about a low-scoring 49ers victory.